War With Iran?

[annabanana]

War clouds

Russia's dangerous double game with Israel and Iran could easily spark a Middle East conflict, with dire consequences for the U.S.
April 28, 2006


LET ME TELL YOU about the next war.

It will start sooner than you think — sometime between now and September. And it will be precipitated by the $700-million Russian deal this week to sell Tor air defense missile systems to Iran.


When the war begins, it will be between Iran and Israel. Before it ends, though, it may set the whole of the Middle East on fire, pulling in the United States, leaving a legacy of instability that will last for generations and permanently ending a century of American supremacy.

Despite the high stakes, the Bush administration seems barely to have noticed the danger posed by the Russian missile sale. But the signs are there, for those inclined to read them.

As international pressure over their nuclear program mounts, the Iranians have become increasingly bellicose toward the U.S. and Israel. On Monday, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Israel was a "fake regime" that "cannot logically continue to live." On Wednesday, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, warned that "if the U.S. ventured into any aggression on Iran, Iran will retaliate by damaging the U.S. interests worldwide."

Israel has upped the rhetorical heat as well. On Tuesday, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert reiterated Israel's determination to "make sure no one has the capability or the power to commit destruction against us."

This alone should make any observer jittery. In June 1981, Israel unilaterally launched an airstrike against a nuclear reactor near Baghdad. Iran's nuclear facilities are dispersed and well-concealed, making a preemptive Israeli strike far more difficult this time around. But there's no reason to doubt Israel's willingness to try.

Of course, there's no firm evidence that Iran has offensive nuclear capabilities. And even a successful military strike against Iran would be a risky move for Israel, potentially igniting regionwide instability. Absent external meddling, Israel has a substantial incentive to wait to see if a diplomatic solution can be found.

But Russian brinksmanship is about to remove Israel's incentive to pursue a peaceful diplomatic path.

Russian leaders continue to mouth the usual diplomatic platitudes about democracy and global cooperation, but Russia is actually playing a complex double game. On Tuesday, Russia launched a spy satellite for Israel, which the Israelis can use to monitor Iran's nuclear facilities. On the same day, Russian leaders confirmed their opposition to any U.N. Security Council effort to impose sanctions against Iran, and their intention to go through with the lucrative sale of 29 Tor M1 air defense missile systems to Iran.

"There are no circumstances which would get in the way of us carrying out our commitments in the field of military cooperation with Iran," declared Nikolai Spassky, deputy head of Russia's National Security Council.

The upcoming deployment of Tor missiles around Iranian nuclear sites dramatically changes the calculus in the Middle East, and it significantly increases the risk of a regional war. Once the missile systems are deployed, Iran's air defenses will become far more sophisticated, and Israel will likely lose whatever ability it now has to unilaterally destroy Iran's nuclear facilities.

The clock is ticking for Israel. To have a hope of succeeding, any unilateral Israeli strike against Iran must take place before September, when the Tor missile deployment is set to be completed.

At best, a conflict between Israel and Iran (with resulting civilian casualties) would further inflame anti-Israel sentiment in the Islamic world, with a consequent increase in terrorism, both against Israel and against the U.S., Israel's main foreign backer. At worst — if the U.S. gets drawn into the conflict directly — the entire Middle East could implode, terrorist attacks worldwide would increase, the already overstretched U.S. military would be badly damaged and U.S. global influence would wane — perhaps forever.

So what is Russia up to? Andrei Piontkovsky, a Russian political analyst, suggests that Russia's oil and gas oligarchs wouldn't shed any tears over a war in the Middle East, especially if it's a war that ensnares the U.S. and keeps oil prices high.

Even so, it may not be too late to avert a new war in the Middle East. A quiet but firm U.S. threat to boycott the G-8 summit in July in St. Petersburg might inspire Russian President Vladimir V. Putin to freeze the missile transfer. And a promise to facilitate Russian entry into the World Trade Organization might even get Russia's oil and gas oligarchs on board. Freezing the missile sale would buy crucial time to find a diplomatic solution to the stalemate over Iran's nuclear program.

Unfortunately, the Bush administration appears to be asleep at the wheel, too distracted by Iraq, skyrocketing gas prices and plummeting approval ratings to devote any attention to Russia's potentially catastrophic mischief.

Meanwhile, the clock is ticking.

www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-brooks28apr28,1,2074482.column

About the author of the article - FYI

Rosa Brooks



Rosa Brooks is a professor at the University of Virginia School of Law. Her experience includes service as a senior advisor at the U.S. State Department's Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights and Labor, as a consultant for the Open Society Institute and Human Rights Watch, as a board member of Amnesty International USA, and as a lecturer at Yale Law School. Her government and NGO work has involved extensive travel and field research on issues such as transitional justice in Iraq, Indonesia and Kosovo and child soldiers in Uganda and Sierra Leone.

Brooks is the author of numerous scholarly articles on international law, human rights, and the law of war, and her book, "Can Might Make Rights? The Rule of Law After Military Interventions" (with Jane Stromseth and David Wippman), will be published in 2006 by Cambridge University Press.

Brooks received her A.B. from Harvard in 1991, followed by a master's degree from Oxford in 1993 and a law degree from Yale in 1996. She lives in Free Union, Va., with her husband and two children.



Canada is not an option:
www.talkleft.com/new_archives/008066.html


I spoke to someone yesterday that just got back from his second time in Iraq. He said that we are currently preparing to go into Iran. He said that we are going in and that we have to do it before November, when the new Russian anti aircraft weapons would be finished installation in Iran. I hope that he is wrong.

[annabanana]

story

Bush gives Iran an ultimatum on uranium
By DEB RIECHMANN, Associated Press Writer 13 minutes ago



President Bush told Iran on Monday that nations worldwide won't back down from their demand that Tehran suspend uranium enrichment.

"Iran's leaders have a clear choice. We hope they will accept our offer and voluntarily suspend these activities so we can work out an agreement that will bring Iran real benefits," Bush said a day before leaving for Vienna, Austria, where he will talk with European Union officials who are leading efforts to resolve the nuclear dispute.

If Iran's leaders reject the offer, they will face action before the U.N. Security Council and progressively stronger political and economic sanctions, Bush said during a commencement speech at the U.S. Merchant Marine Academy.

Bush discussed Iran with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday during an 18-minute phone call Putin placed to Bush. "The presidents agreed on the importance of remaining united in their efforts to press Iran to suspend all enrichment activities and begin negotiations on the incentives package," said Kate Starr, a spokeswoman for the National Security Council.

On Sunday, Iran accused the United States of trying to sway European nations from a possible compromise. The Iranian foreign ministry said U.S. insistence that negotiations be conditioned on Tehran's suspension of uranium enrichment has narrowed the scope of possible solutions, and made it more difficult for all parties to reach an accord.

Bush made it clear he would not budge. He said allowing Iran to enrich uranium, a process that can make nuclear fuel for a power plant or fissile material for an atomic bomb, would present a grave threat to the world.

"The United States has offered to come to the table with our partners and meet with Iran's representatives as soon as the Iranian regime fully and verifiably suspends its uranium enrichment and reprocessing activities," Bush said. "I have a message for the Iranian regime: America and our partners are united. We have presented a reasonable offer. Iran's leaders should see our proposal for what it is — a historic opportunity to set their country on a better course."

On June 6, European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana presented a package of rewards and possible penalties to Iran. The package was drawn up by the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council — the United States, Britain, China, France and Russia — and Germany.

The package calls on Iran to suspend, not permanently halt, uranium enrichment as a condition for the start of talks, although the negotiations are aimed at getting Iran to agree to a long-term moratorium on such activity.

Iran says enriching uranium is its country's right. Iranian officials say they are reviewing the package and will propose amendments.

Bush is the first American president to address a graduating class at the academy. He spoke there at the request of former White House chief of staff, Andrew Card, who briefly studied there in the 1960s and hitched a ride on Air Force One to share the stage with the president.

"When he was a plebe, he was stuffed in a duffel bag and run up the flagpole," Bush said about his former chief of staff who left the school when he married.

The U.S. Merchant Marine Academy was created following a 1934 fire in which 134 people died aboard the passenger ship Morro Castle. Congress acknowledged the need for maritime-training standards and passed the Merchant Marine Act that created the academy in 1936. President Franklin D. Roosevelt dedicated the school in 1943 in Kings Point.

Kings Point graduates work as deck officers aboard container ships, oil tankers, passenger cruise ships and other vessels. Others remain on land and have become engineers in shipbuilding companies and work in a variety of port operations, including security, while some opt for military careers. Since the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, the academy has played a leading role in developing international training standards for maritime security.

"From this campus, every man and woman could see the black smoke rising from the Twin Towers," Bush said. "Within hours, your midshipmen were working side-by-side with the Coast Guard and Marine division of the New York City Fire Department," Bush told the midshipmen seated on a sunny football field at the academy outside New York City.

"Over the next nine days, you moved firefighters and police and emergency response teams into ground zero. You moved tons of food and water supplies. The heroic response to that terrible day showed the spirit of America, and the spirit of this fine academy."

___



Associated Press writer Frank Eltman in Kings Point, N.Y., contributed to this report.

___

On the Net:

U.S. Merchant Marine Academy: www.usmma.edu White House: www.whitehouse.gov

[annabanana]

news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060620/ts_nm/bush_europe_dc;_ylt=AqMeGzE.E1ml6PbuuHtFjyRZ.3QA;_ylu=X3oDMTA5aHJvMDdwBHNlYwN5bmNhdA--

Bush to keep up pressure on Iran in Europe By Steve Holland
2 hours, 10 minutes ago



President Bush arrived in Europe on Tuesday to keep up pressure on Iran over its nuclear program even as North Korea threatens to divert his attention by apparently preparing a long-range missile launch.

Buoyed by a wave of good news after months of grim headlines, Bush will attend an annual U.S.-European Union summit in Vienna and then go to Budapest to mark the 50th anniversary of Hungary's uprising against Soviet rule.

On his 15th trip to Europe since taking office in 2001, Bush will be gone from Washington less than 63 hours, returning home late on Thursday.

In Vienna, he plans to stress that the United States and Europe must stand firm in pressing Iran to suspend its uranium enrichment program in order to qualify for an incentives package aimed at containing its nuclear ambitions.

A U.S.-backed package of incentives was offered to Iran early this month, and the United States has said it will join European talks with Tehran if it agrees to suspend an enrichment program the West suspects could be a step toward building nuclear weapons.

"If Iran does not accept this offer then we return to the U.N. Security Council. So I think that's all a part of the way forward," White House national security adviser Stephen Hadley told reporters traveling with Bush on Air Force One.

"If their government will take this offer that is before them, it can result in avoiding this crisis, it can result in strengthened relations," he said.

Iran denies planning to build nuclear bombs and says its nuclear activities are aimed at generating electricity.

Bush's drive for sanctions is opposed by U.N. Security Council members China and Russia. The White House said he and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed on the need to work together on the issue in a telephone call on Monday.

Bush's task at the summit in Austria, which holds the rotating EU presidency, is to secure European support for sanctions if Iran refuses to suspend enrichment.

NORTH KOREAN CHALLENGE

North Korea's apparent preparation for a test launch of a missile capable of reaching the United States has given the president a new challenge.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who is accompanying Bush on the trip, said a North Korean missile test would be a provocative act that Washington would take seriously.

Hadley said it was not fully clear whether North Korea planned to test a long-range missile.

"It's hard to tell," he said. "They seem to be moving forward toward a launch, but the intelligence is not conclusive at this point."

There appeared to be "a desire to create a sense of crisis" by North Korea, Hadley said.

"A lot of folks are sending messages to the North Koreans this would be a bad idea," he said. "And a lot of these countries are going to have ideas about what we do should North Korea ignore the advice of the international community and go forward with this launch."

Bush is likely to face more European pressure to close the Guantanamo Bay prison, after the military announced on June 10 that three detainees had committed suicide.

Bush has fended off calls from allies and rights advocates to close the jail on the island of Cuba by saying he is waiting for a U.S. Supreme Court decision about the forum for handling detainee cases, due by the end of June.

Trade was expected to be discussed. Bush has urged Europe to lower its protection for farmers, a reduction the United States would be prepared to match.

(Additional reporting by Tabassum Zakaria)

[annabanana]

www.usnews.com/usnews/biztech/articles/060620/20oil.htm

Oil prices could spike, Saudi warns
By Marianne Lavelle

Posted 6/20/06

World oil prices could double or triple over the current painful $70-per-barrel level if diplomacy failed and military conflict broke out over Iran's nuclear ambitions, Saudi Ambassador Prince Turki al-Faisal warned this morning.

"We don't know" what will happen if the United States chooses a military option in Iran, al-Faisal said, but "if there is military conflict, if bombs are dropped, ships are blown up, oil facilities on our side of the gulf are targeted . . . just the idea of somebody firing a missile at an installation somewhere would shoot up the price of oil astronomically." In such a scenario, he said, Saudi Arabia "hopefully would defend our oil installations as best as we can and seek an immediate resolution," but the risks would be grave. "Not just our installations, but the whole gulf would become an inferno of exploding fuel tanks and shut-up facilities," al-Faisal said.

Al-Faisal, who has served as Washington-based ambassador to the Saudi kingdom since last year, is the son of former Saudi King Faisal. Although he has warned against military conflict in Iran previously, his remarks today were his most specific yet on the consequences of an outbreak of violence.

Speaking this morning in Washington, D.C., at the U.S. Energy Association, an organization of public and private energy companies and agencies, Al-Faisal said that Saudi analysts estimate that a $20-to-$30 premium of today's world oil price is a result of fear in the marketplace over global political problems. When asked what would be the most important foreign policy step the United States could take to address these issues, Al-Faisal said, "I think they can fix the Middle East problem, fix the Iraqi problem, and carry through with the diplomatic process on the Iranian problem. All of these things are doable." He added that "the entire world community" must become more engaged, "but the United States has the leading role on all these issues."

Regarding Iraq, Al-Faisal said that his country supports President Bush's current policy of working with the newly formed Iraqi government until it requests that troops withdraw. "Our position in Saudi Arabia is that the U.S. came into Iraq uninvited and they should not leave uninvited.

"Simply to pack up and leave, I think, would be disastrous, not just for Iraq, but for the area," he said.

He encouraged the United States to continue forward with the U.N. Security Council and other nations on the diplomatic proposal to address Iran's goal to move forward with nuclear fuel enrichment. "The Iranians have indicated that they are interested in engaging with the U.N. Security Council on that subject. What we encourage is that process should continue. We think military conflict would be counterproductive . . . definitely, we're talking about $70-a-barrel oil–you'd see that perhaps doubled or tripled as the result of conflict."